In our last post, where I shared with us screen shots of events happening all over the world, I promised to do some analysis on the crucial ones, this will be the first one and it's coming at the right time because by the end of Sunday, the European stalwart will have a new leader.
On Sunday, France will choose its next president. The election is being closely watched because, for the first time in modern French history, neither of the two candidates in the decisive second round are from mainstream parties of the left or right.
"The Republicans - which is on the right - and the Socialist Party on the centre left represented only 26 percent of the total votes from the first round, which is the lowest cumulated score for France's two main parties in the history of the Fifth Republic," Pierre Bocquillon, a lecturer of politics at Britain's University of East Anglia, told Al Jazeera.
"They are perceived as disconnected from citizens, not delivering on their promises and conducting similar policies when in power. More than a victory of the challengers, it is first a spectacular failure of both the Socialist Party and The Republicans."
Frontrunner Emmanuel Macron, 39, is a centrist running as an independent and launched his own movement just last year - "En Marche!". He was previously an economic minister under the socialist government of outgoing President
Francois Hollande.
His 48-year-old rival Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right, recently stepped down from the National Front (FN) party that raised her. The move was seen as part of her efforts to distance herself from the racist roots of the party, which was founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen in 1942.
Why is this election important?
France is a founding member of the European Union , and this election could lead to the bloc's ultimate downfall.
While Macron is a great supporter of the EU, Le Pen rails against it at every opportunity. She has promised a referendum on France's membership, in the hope the country will "Frexit" in Britain's footsteps.
Other hot topics in the campaign have included: unemployment, security of the economy, workers' rights, globalisation, immigration, refugees and secularism.
Is it A Coincidence : Hacking Again Just as That of USA
Further underlining the unpredictable nature of this election, on Friday - with one and a half days to go until the vote - nine gigabytes of data from Macron's team was posted online in the final hours of campaigning.
WikiLeaks has said the dump was authentic, though did not claim responsibility.
The leak comes in the wake of accusations that Russia attempted to hack the 2016 US election.
Macron's team has said the "hacking" is an attempt at "democratic destabilisation".
The campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron says it has been the target of a "massive hacking attack" after a trove of documents was released online.
The campaign said that genuine files were mixed up with fake ones in order to confuse people.
It said it was clear that hackers wanted to undermine Mr Macron ahead of Sunday's second round vote.
The centrist will face off against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. The documents were leaked on a file sharing website late on Friday and the Macron camp condemned the action just before the official campaigning period ended at midnight (22:00 GMT).
Candidates and the media now face restrictions until the polls close on Sunday evening, meaning Mr Macron cannot issue further statements.
What was released?
About nine gigabytes of data were posted online by an anonymous user.
Mr Macron's En Marche movement said internal campaign documents, including emails and financial data, had been taken in an "act of massive, co-ordinated hacking".
"The leaked files were obtained several weeks ago by hacking personal and professional email accounts of several officials of the movement," it said in a statement.
The campaign said the documents showed only legitimate campaign activities.
France's election commission warned that publication or republication of the leaked information could be a criminal offence.
How did the leaks spread?
The hashtag #MacronLeaks appeared on Twitter on an account used by a US alt-right figure on Friday afternoon - and was reportedly retweeted 87 times in the first five minutes, suggesting the use of automated bots to spread the information faster. Within 90 minutes, the information had caught the attention of prominent supporters of Marine Le Pen and was further spread by bots.
Some three-and-a-half hours after the initial tweet, #MacronLeaks had been used some 47,000 times and the prominent Wikileaks account played a key role in publicising the hashtag.
Who might be responsible?
That too remains unclear. The Macron camp has not blamed any specific party but said the hack clearly aimed to damage it and undermine French democracy,
It compared it to the leak of Democratic Party emails in last year's US presidential election that was blamed on Russian hackers.
Wikileaks, which published those emails, posted a link to the Macron documents on Twitter but implied it was not responsible.
Is this unprecedented?
Mr Macron's team has already been the victim of hacking attacks, for which it has blamed groups based in Russia and Ukraine. It suspects the Kremlin of wanting to help Ms Le Pen, who supports a pro-Moscow foreign policy.
Macron campaign servers went down for several minutes in February after attacks apparently originating in Ukraine
Last month security experts from the company Trend Micro said that Russian hackers were targeting Mr Macron's campaign, using phishing emails, malware and fake net domains in an attempt to grab login names, passwords and other credentials of campaign staff
Russia has denied that it is behind attacks aimed at Mr Macron.
On Thursday, the centrist candidate filed a lawsuit over online rumours that he had a secret bank account in the Caribbean.
Mr Macron called the allegations "fake news and lies" and said some of the sites spreading them were "linked to Russian interests".
What is at stake on Sunday?
France's voters have rejected the two big political parties - the Socialists and the Republicans - that have governed for decades. Voters will be making a decision on France's future direction and on its place at the heart of the European Union.
If they opt for liberal Emmanuel Macron, they will be backing a candidate who seeks EU reform as well as deeper European integration, in the form of a eurozone budget and eurozone finance ministers.
If instead they choose far-right Marine Le Pen she promises quite the opposite. She wants a Europe of nations to replace the EU.
After the Brexit vote in the UK and the election of US President Donald Trump, France is the latest country to deal a blow to politics as usual. Next thing could be Frexit, France exit from EU.
What are the battleground issues?
One of the overriding issues facing French voters is unemployment, which stands at almost 10% and is the eighth highest among the 28 EU member states. One in four under-25s is unemployed. The French economy has made a slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis and all the leading candidates say deep changes are needed.
Marine Le Pen wants the pension age cut to 60 and to "renationalise French debt", which she argues is largely held by foreigners. Emmanuel Macron wants to cut 120,000 public-sector jobs, reduce public spending by €60bn (£50bn; $65bn), plough billions into investment and reduce unemployment to below 7%.
What about security?
The election is taking place amid a state of emergency, and the first round took place three days after a policeman was shot dead on the Champs Elysées in the heart of Paris.
Some 50,000 police will be deployed across the country along with 7,000 troops involved in the anti-terror operation begun after the January 2015 Paris attacks, according to French media. More than 12,000 police and military will be on alert in the Paris area.
The security forces will primarily guard polling stations and will be organised into "dynamic patrols" set to intervene immediately in any incident, Le Figaro newspaper reported .
More than 230 people have died in terror attacks since January 2015 and officials fear more of the hundreds of young French Muslims who travelled to Syria and Iraq may return to commit new atrocities.
Intelligence services believe attackers are deliberately pursuing a Le Pen victory, says the BBC's Hugh Schofield in Paris - because that could tip the country into chaos.
Ms Le Pen wants to suspend the EU's open-border agreement on France's frontiers and expel foreigners who are on the watch lists of intelligence services.
Who's could be the winner?
In the first round, Macron won 23.9 percent of the vote compared with Le Pen's 21.4 percent. Polls before the campaign blackout on Sunday's vote showed Macron winning to the tune of around 65 percent of the electorate.
After an unprecedented televised debate between the rivals on Wednesday, he gained one point in the polls as Le Pen was on the defensive, appearing to many as a less convincing leader.
Macron is likely to attract voters who cast their ballots for the traditional left and right candidates in the first round on April 23, losers Benoit Hamon and Francois Fillon. Both have urged their supporters to pick Macron.
However, Jean-Luc Melenchon, a far-left candidate, won more support than Hamon at the initial April 23 round, and it is less clear what his supporters intend to do. Some say they will cast blank votes, others have indicated they will vote for Le Pen. Unlike several other leading politicians, Melenchon has refused to call on his fans to back Macron.
But, Does Polls Count Any More?
Polls failed to predict two major recent events in the West: Britain's decision to leave the EU and the election of US President Donald Trump. And it is these two surprises, many analysts say, that mean anything is possible. Yeah, Anything is possible.
Another common subject is whether or not another attack on French soil would boost Le Pen, who ritually condemns what she calls "Islamic terrorism".
I believe God will enthrone in France a President that will spearhead a change and reshaping of Europe.
How has the far-right managed to get so far?
The last time the far right made it this close to running France was in 2002, when Marine's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was up against the right-wing Jacques Chirac, who ultimately won.
Then, Le Pen won just 18 percent of the vote as millions rushed to keep the extreme right out.
However, the younger Le Pen appears more of a mainstream player compared with party figures during the ruling period of her father - an outright racist who served in the Algerian War, during which it was later discovered he had carried out torture.
Le Pen has promised a referendum on France's membership in EU if she wins, in the hope the country will 'Frexit' in Britain's footsteps [EPA]
She is also riding a gripping populist wave, presenting herself as "the candidate for the people" and slamming, among other things: immigration , refugees, French minorities including Muslims, the EU and euro, globalisation, foreign workers, and taxes (except on foreigners).
What do other countries make of it all?
Western Europe's far right are watching this election closely.
A Le Pen win would give them a significant boost.
Among her supporters are Geert Wilders, an Islamophobic Dutch politician who recently lost an election, and Nigel Farage, the former leader of the populist United Kingdom Independence Party.
In January, she travelled to the Trump Tower in New York, sparking speculation that the new US president was among her allies. Trump tweeted a mysterious message during the first round: "Very interesting election currently taking place in France".
Russian President Vladimir Putin officially welcomed her to Moscow in March, saying she represented a "quickly developing spectrum of European political forces", but denied interfering in the political process.
As for Macron, Barack Obama , the former US president, threw his support behind the former investment banker on Thursday. Macron is said to have taken inspiration from Obama's grassroots campaign strategy.
Meanwhile, Angela Merkel , the German chancellor, said she believes Macron would be a "strong president" for France.
Though British prime minister met Macron, she has not - unlike the UK's Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and SNP opposition parties - endorsed him.
What next?
In the short term, if Macron wins, there is expected to be a greater sense of calm and security on the streets than if Le Pen wins the presidency.
In the immediate aftermath of the vote, if the far-right candidate does succeed, clashes on the streets are expected as anti-fascists and other demonstrators express their anger over the result.
Even so, Macron's popularity is by no means universal.
At a protest in Paris on May 1, which turned violent, thousands of demonstrators chanted "Ni Le Pen, ni Macron" translating to "Neither Le Pen nor Macron".
Once elected, the French president can serve a maximum of two five-year terms in office.
Parliamentary elections are expected in June. Early polls suggest Macron's party will emerge as the largest, followed by conservative parties. The far right is expected to come out last.
What happens after Sunday?
Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen came top of the 11 candidates in total who participated in the first round of voting on 23 April.
While the outcome of Sunday's second round should be clear that evening, the results will be officially proclaimed by France's constitutional council on Thursday, 11 May.
Now, My Analysis
But, whatever happens, God is still in charge, He will align the result of the election to the fulfillment of His Will.
I believe God will enthrone in France a President that will spearhead a change and reshaping of Europe, remember France is a founding member of the European Union and based on Logistics of events happening in top European nations.
What I perceive is this and it's my opinion but could count:
I think God want to bring out of EU the top nations, Britain, France and also Germany, in order to pave a way for the rising of the Antichrist in a small nation, and will be easier for him to spread his dominion over all other smaller European nations as long EU membership is not strong as before or even when EU exist no more.
This my opinion is also in line with what the Scripts predicts through his Latter Rain Prophet, Neal Frisby.
Nevertheless, a Christian ought to know that this is not the time to sleep as others does, this is the time to keep your eye open and watch. Because the coming of the Lord is connected to Prophecies and Events predicted before. As we see these events occurring all over the world, then the Sons of Isssachah of this generation who has the understanding of Times will tell the spiritual Israelites what to do next, what to expect next and the soonest of the Lord's coming. Just like the midnight criers did in Matthew 25.
Stay Connected...
In the next 24 hours, we should know the next president of France.
No comments:
Post a Comment